Main Street Monday: Comerica Small Biz Outlook for 2026, 79% Project Sales Increase, 57% Need Financing

January 5, 2026

by Bob Coleman

Founder & Publisher

Main Street Monday: Comerica Small Biz Outlook for 2026, 79% Project Sales Increase, 57% Need Financing

“Small businesses have navigated a year filled with challenges—from tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown—yet their optimism remains unwavering,” says Larry Franco, Comerica Bank Executive Vice President and National Director of Retail & Small Business Banking. 

“This spirit speaks volumes about the adaptability and determination of America’s entrepreneurs as they prepare for growth in 2026.”

A year-end Comerica survey concludes 80% of respondents say they are somewhat or very confident in their business outlook for the next 12 months. Confidence is highest in the South at 83% and among technology firms at 93%, health care businesses at 90%, and companies with 10 or more employees at 88%. Housing and real estate firms report the lowest confidence at 67%.

79% of respondents expect revenue growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of 7.9%. Technology and construction firms report the strongest growth expectations. Sole proprietors and retail businesses both report more cautious outlooks.

57% of respondents plan to make capital expenditures in 2026, with an average planned investment of $109,000. Technology firms report the highest planned spending, averaging $187,000.

Inflation is cited as the top concern by 23% of respondents, followed by tariffs at 14% and government policies or regulations at 11%.

53% of respondents say recent Federal Reserve rate cuts have had a positive impact on their business. Approximately 33% report that lower rates are encouraging additional investment or calculated risk taking heading into 2026.

With 42% of responding small businesses reporting negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, owners took or are considering decisive steps to protect their operations. Top mitigation strategies already taken or being considered include:

  • Accessing credit: 23% have taken on new loans or tapped existing credit lines
  • Workforce adjustments: 22% have frozen hiring or laid off staff, with higher rates among firms with 10 or more employees (28%) and retail businesses (24%)
  • Personal sacrifices: 18% have tapped personal savings, home equity, or retirement funds to offset shortfalls
  • Delaying investments: Nearly 1 in 5 businesses have delayed or plan to scale back capital expenditures